Rational decision-making in the face of uncertainty: An experiment in Jeopardy!

This paper examines the quiz show Jeopardy!. In the game, players accumulate points then wager them in a final round on a single question. My study finds an empirically-best wagering system for these players, then calculates the benefit of using this system through additional games that would be won with the correct bet. My regression model then finds the determinants of empirically-best (EB) betters. The results show players tend to act too aggressively. Half of non-first place players wager incorrectly and nearly 90% of those non- EB wagers are too large. The regression shows players are most likely to make the EB bet when the correct wager is predictable, simple, and large