Influence of dispersal processes on the global dynamics of Emperor penguin, a species threatened by climate change

© The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Biological Conservation 212 (2017): 63-73, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2017.05.017.Species endangered by rapid climate change may persist by tracking their optimal habitat; this depends on their dispersal characteristics. The Emperor Penguin (EP) is an Antarctic seabird threatened by future sea ice change, currently under consideration for listing under the US Endangered Species Act. Indeed, a climate-dependent-demographic model without dispersion projects that many EP colonies will decline by more than 50% from their current size by 2100, resulting in a dramatic global population decline. Here we assess whether or not dispersion could act as an ecological rescue, i.e. reverse the anticipated global population decline projected by a model without dispersion. To do so, we integrate de22 tailed dispersal processes in a metapopulation model|specifically, dispersal stages, dispersal distance, habitat structure, informed dispersal behaviors, and density-dependent dispersion rates. For EP, relative to a scenario without dispersion, dispersal can either offset or accelerate climate driven population declines; dispersal may increase the global population by up to 31% or decrease it by 65%, depending on the rate of emigration and distance individuals disperse. By developing simpler theoretical models, we demonstrate that the global population dynamic depends on the global landscape quality. In addition, the interaction among dispersal processes - dispersion rates, dispersal distance, and dispersal decisions - that influence landscape occupancy, impacts the global population dynamics. Our analyses bound the impact of between-colony emigration on global population size, and provides intuition as to the direction of population change depending on the EP dispersal characteristics. Our general model is flexible such that multiple dispersal scenarios could be implemented for a wide range of species to improve our understanding and predictions of species persistence under future global change.S. Jenouvrier acknowledges support from WHOI Unrestricted funds and Mission Blue / Biotherm; J. Garnier and L. Desvillettes acknowledge respectively the NONLOCAL project (ANR-14-CE25-0013) and the Kibord project (ANR-13-BS01-0004) from the French National Research Agency