The Effect of Economic and Individual Variables on Retirement Decisions

Pension systems in several countries have begun to show a lack of efficiency and sustainability, which motivates governments to investigate which factors cause this loss of balance. It is commonly known that traditional pension systems where active workers finance the pensions of retired workers as pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) have a strong dependence on the demographic structure of countries. Here is where factors such as the increase in life expectancy and a decrease in birth rate, have an impact on this balance. Several measures aimed at keeping the sustainability of pension schemes are focused on the modification of variables, such as retirement age and contribution of workers, to maintain the solvency of the system. Some articles have gone beyond and studied how macroeconomic and individual variables can influence the decision of early retirement. This study contributes to written literature about the effect of macroeconomic variables on retirement decisions. It expands in the inclusion of oil prices as an important variable that can affect retirement, specifically in countries that export oil and whose economy depends on this income. Additionally, this study presents an innovative model of artificial intelligence developed for the industry to predict the early retirement of individuals. This model takes into account economic factors and individuals characteristics to create an alert system that constantly is fed as new data is generated. This research has a strong impact in recent years. Oil prices have had several fluctuations, mainly downward, affecting the economy of countries in different ways. Early retirement is one example of the consequences in the economy caused by the fluctuating oil prices. Currently, there is no machine-learning model implemented internally in insurance companies or government institutions to track early retirement. The alert system allows controlling early retirement at a company level. The governments and administrators of pensions should be aware of this