Forecasting the demand for specialist doctors providing outpatient secondary health care in the unit of X outpatient clinic

Aim of study. To determine the demand for specialist doctors providing outpatient secondary services in the unit of X outpatient clinic. Objectives. 1. To assess the volumes of outpatient secondary services provided by the specialist doctors in the unit of X outpatient clinic, in 2016–2018. 2. To determine the factual duration of one outpatient secondary service and to compare it with the workload norms. 3. To assess patients' queues for planned outpatient secondary services in the X outpatient clinic. 4. To determine the necessary number of posts of specialist doctors providing outpatient secondary services according to the volumes of outpatient secondary services provided, workload norms. Methods. The data required for carrying out the quantitative study: number of doctors employed, number of working doctors and hours worked, number of visits, workload norms, waiting lists for patients were received from the outpatient unit of X clinic. Data on secondary outpatient services provided are published in the X clinic license. During the study, differences in secondary outpatient services were estimated by evaluating the share of services provided by specific medical professionals compared to all services provided. Results. It was shown that the difference of the share of services provided by most of specialist doctors compared to all services provided was statistically significant. Comparing type of the services provided be specialists doctors every year statistical differences were also determined. In this research it was evaluated that time assigned to visits by some specialist doctors was two times bigger than specified/stated in the workload norms. The research findings revealed that shortest queuing times in X outpatient clinic in 2016-2018 was to surgeons, otolaryngologists, neurologists, children's allergologists, children's endocrinologists, children's neurologists. The research findings allowed determining the number of required specialist doctors to provide outpatient secondary services by the volumes of outpatient services provided, workload norms. Conclusions. 1. In the unit of X outpatient clinic most visits are first time visits. In 2018, the decrease in the number of posts was observed. 2. The time spent by children's neurologists, children's endocrinologists providing outpatient secondary services was two times longer than specified the workload norms. In 2016-2017, the time spent for providing endoscopist outpatient secondary services was two times longer than specified/ stated in the workload norms mentioned above. All other specialist doctors provided services spending either too little or too much time with patients. 3. The shortest waiting times for outpatient secondary services during the researched period was visits for surgeons, otolaryngologists, neurologists, children's allergologists, children's endocrinologists, children's neurologists. 4. Specifically predicted number of posts of every specialist doctor showed that that the demand for doctors in certain specialties may diminish due to a significant drop in the number of services