Magma displacements under insular volcanic fields, applications to eruption forecasting: El Hierro, Canary Islands, 2011-2013

Significant deformations, followed by increased seismicity detected since 2011 July at El Hierro, Canary Islands, Spain, prompted the deployment of additional monitoring equipment. The climax of this unrest was a submarine eruption first detected on 2011 October 10, and located at about 2 km SW of La Restinga, southernmost village of El Hierro Island. The eruption ceased on 2012 March 5, after the volcanic tremor signals persistently weakened through 2012 February. However, the seismic activity did not end with the eruption, as several other seismic crises followed. The seismic episodes presented a characteristic pattern: over a few days the number and magnitude of seismic event increased persistently, culminating in seismic events severe enough to be felt all over the island. Those crises occurred in 2011 November, 2012 June and September, 2012 December to 2013 January and in 2013 March-April. In all cases the seismic unrest was preceded by significant deformations measured on the island's surface that continued during the whole episode. Analysis of the available GPS and seismic data suggests that several magma displacement processes occurred at depth from the beginning of the unrest. The first main magma movement or 'injection' culminated with the 2011 October submarine eruption. A model combining the geometry of the magma injection process and the variations in seismic energy release has allowed successful forecasting of the new-vent opening.CSIC [2011-30E070]; MINECO [CGL2011-28682-C02-01]; bilateral UNAM (Mexico) - CSIC (Spain) program; Mayor's Office of El Pinar de El Hierro