The highest fertility in Europe – for how long?: determinants of fertility change in Albania

Albania’s demographic changes have sparked considerable interest in recent years. Much of this attention has arisen due to a general lack of knowledge and to the seemingly paradoxical demographic behaviour of the Albanian population (Gjonça, A. 2001; Gjonça, A. et al. 1997). The country has experienced a high level of life expectancy and relatively high levels of fertility in recent years. While previous research gives some answers to developing trends and patterns of mortality and fertility change, not much is known about fertility behaviour either during the communist period or during the nineties. The post-transition situation is bound to have profound impact on society and the behaviour of individuals within it. Using the 2002 Albanian Living Standard and Measurement Survey (ALSMS) we analyse fertility behaviour in terms of the quantum and tempo. The results from survival analysis techniques suggest that the reduction of fertility is mainly due to social development, with particular emphasis on female education, as well as the improvement of child mortality. The results for the 1990s also reveal some strong period effects mainly influencing higher parities. The persistence of traditional norms and values continue to affect family formation in Albania, while the changes in social and economic circumstances shape childbearing