Global Drivers of Land and Water Sustainability Stresses at Mid-century

We quantify the local stresses related to land, water and nitrate leaching (spatially resolved at ~10km x 10km cells) across the continental U.S. arising from expansion and intensification of agriculture between the present and 2050. The stresses are decomposed into those due to population and income growth, climate change, biofuel demands and productivity improvements – both in the U.S. and abroad. We also highlight how these local stresses depend on local climate, soils, nitrogen applications and irrigation practices and identify the tradeoffs associated with achieving individual sustainability objectives. For example, restricting irrigation expansion puts added pressure on non-irrigated cropland expansion and intensification of production in the remaining cropped areas. The tradeoffs, and in some cases synergies, between achieving environmental, food security and farm income objectives are explored