Evaluating the Risk Posed by Propulsive Small Satellites with Unencrypted Communications Channels to High-Value Orbital Regimes

Propulsion systems for small-satellites are approaching the market. At the same time, some operators do not encrypt their communications links, creating the near-term potential for an unauthorized actor to send spurious commands to a satellite. At worst, an unauthorized activation of the propulsion system could precipitate a conjunction. Aside from the potential loss of system hardware, the reputational costs to the industry of such an incident could be significant and far-reaching. To establish a physical basis for the feasibility of this risk, we simulate the potential altitude increase from a 300 km circular orbit generated for a 10 kg nano-satellite coupled with each of the propulsion system types under advanced development. We find that chemical reaction systems enable the satellite to access all altitudes within LEO over short time domains and that electrostatic propulsion is capable of reaching GEO, though over long time domains. Manufacturers, launch service providers and brokers, regulators, and the CubeSat community all have potential roles to play in managing this risk