Indian Seafood Export: Trends, Forecast and Market Stability Analysis

In India, the seafood export gradually increased from a mere earning of Rs. 3.98 crores in 1961-62 to Rs. 30213.26 crores in 2013-14 and in terms of quantity the export increased from mere 15732 tonnes to staggering 9.83 lakh tonnes in the same period. Three-year moving average for export and production shows increasing trend with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 between them. Lowest CGR was observed for the decade 1981-1990 (2.50% for quantity and 4.76% for value) whereas for the rest of the decades the figures were higher than 3.0 % for quantity and 5.0% for value. Using Markov chain approachit was observed that Japan was the most stable market among the major importers of Indian Seafood as reflected by the probability of retention at 86.36 % and the most unstable markets was the Middle East with the 40 % retention.The forecast for the marine product export for 2020 was found to be 13.82 lakh tonnes using Holt method