Predation of artificial nests in UK farmland by magpies (Pica pica): interacting environmental, temporal, and social factors influence a nest's risk

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The recent decline in farmland songbirds in the UK has coincided with increases in the populations of many nest predators. However, studies which have removed nest predators and monitored the response of prey populations have found mixed results. One explanation for this ambiguity is that, within species, predators differ in how likely they are to predate nests and only the removal of particularly predatory individuals will improve the breeding success of prey populations. Predators could differ in the extent to which they take nests due to variation in the local environment and/or variation within the predator population, e.g. differences in breeding status. Additional to these broad factors, certain individuals may specialise on particular prey. We placed 460 artificial nests in a systematically balanced design in UK farmland to analyse these sources of variation in predation. Magpies (Pica pica) were the most common predators of our artificial nests and the vulnerability of our nests to magpie predation varied according to magpie breeding status (predation was higher inside breeding magpies’ territories), but this effect varied temporally. More nests were predated inside of magpie territories late in the season, when magpies had dependent fledglings. More specifically, some nest locations were especially vulnerable independent of both magpie breeding status and time in breeding season. These nests may have been disproportionately predated by specific, particularly predatory, territorial magpies. Habitat management and/or predator removal may benefit songbird populations if targeted towards reducing the effect of particular individuals identified as more likely to predate songbird nests.SongBird Surviva