Add to ORKGThe PollyVote applies a century-old principle of combining different evidence-based methods for forecasting the outcome of American presidential elections. In this article, we discuss the principles followed in constructing the PollyVote formula, summarize its components, review the accuracy of its previous forecasts, and make a prediction for this year\u27s presidential election
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
For most commentators and pollsters, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election came a...
The paper categorizes factors responsible for forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential election ...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
In the PollyVote, we evaluated the combination principle to forecast the five U.S. presidential elec...
In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, exp...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
We present an evaluation of a project to forecast the 2004 presidential election by applying the com...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
With the 2016 presidential primary now well underway, many pundits and commentators are beginning to...
In averaging forecasts within and across four component methods (i.e., polls, prediction markets, ex...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, bas...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
For most commentators and pollsters, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election came a...
The paper categorizes factors responsible for forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential election ...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
In the PollyVote, we evaluated the combination principle to forecast the five U.S. presidential elec...
In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, exp...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
We present an evaluation of a project to forecast the 2004 presidential election by applying the com...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
With the 2016 presidential primary now well underway, many pundits and commentators are beginning to...
In averaging forecasts within and across four component methods (i.e., polls, prediction markets, ex...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, bas...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
For most commentators and pollsters, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election came a...
The paper categorizes factors responsible for forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential election ...