The VLCC Market: A short-term forecast of freight rates via multiple regression

Τhe volatility of freight rates is of interest, because their prices continuously change. Their calculation becomes extremely difficult, as various factors interdependent in the shipping industry to define them. A reliable and accurate tool for freight rate calculation is necessary, especially for investment decision making in the maritime industry and estimating potential risk. This dissertation focused on the determination of the relationship that various factors of the shipping industry have with the freight rates of VLCC vessels. An integrated literature review was presented from which the factors were identified. The research project was based on reliable data from well-known organisations and through a multiple regression analysis, the factors as independent variables were evaluated to create a regression model that can estimate the freight rates in short-term period. The findings indicated that there is a true relationship between the freight rate and the independent variables. The result of the regression model gave a very small prediction error rate and that the VLCC freight rate will be reduced in the 2018