Violence risk assessment: A brief review, current issues, and future directions

A little over 11 years ago, I was invited to look forward and anticipate what areas in violence risk assessment would see more study (Mills, 2005). The areas identified at that time related to (a) increased clarity on the similarities and differences between structured professional judgment and actuarial approaches to risk assessment and the associated implications, (b) advancing our understanding of risk communication and risk management, (c) including dynamic change in actuarial risk assessment, and (d) the need to recalibrate frequently used risk appraisal instruments. This brief look back at my looking forward includes what we have learned from meta-analytic studies and that a review of the progress in the 4 areas identified above lead directly or indirectly to the need for a much greater understanding in the area of criminal justice risk communication. In matters of risk communication, we need to be clear in what we say and we need to understand how it will be perceived and employed by those who hear that message