Cost Analysis and Air Pollution Impact of Electric Vehicles on a Metropolitan Area.

During the 1990\u27s, increasing attention has been paid to electric vehicles (EV\u27s) because of their potential to reduce air pollution in metropolitan areas such as the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area in the U.S., Mexico City and Its Metropolitan Area in Mexico, Greater London in the United Kingdom and other urban areas. However, few studies to determine the costs and benefits of reducing air pollution by introducing EV\u27s into these mega cities have been carried out. A model to determine the marginal costs and environmental impact of electric vehicles on a metropolitan area is designed in this study. The model simulates the changes of vehicle characteristics in a transportation system caused by the introduction of EV\u27s. It determines the number of vehicles of each type and their age distribution for every year. Then, the model creates the information required to determine emission factors of hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NO$\rm\sb{x}).$ The emission factors are determined with MOBILE5, software provided by the U.S. EPA. After these factors are determined, the total emissions caused by the remaining internal combustion vehicles (ICV\u27s) are calculated. The reduction of emissions and the benefits of EV\u27s pollution control programs are estimated. With this model it is possible to determine the reduction of emissions per dollar invested in EV\u27s and the relationship between their costs and benefits. Five scenarios are analyzed. The first three scenarios consider the replacement of ICV\u27s with EV\u27s at different introduction rates. The fourth scenario is the no action taken scenario. The last scenario is one that considers the retirement of the oldest ICV\u27s in the system and replaces these vehicles with new ICV\u27s. Overall, the results indicate that EV\u27s pollution control programs are expensive but effective over the long term when compared to the replacement of old ICV\u27s with new ICV\u27s and other pollution control alternatives