Changes in meteo-hydrological extremes in Spain at different levels of global warming

Ponencia presentada en: XI Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Cartagena entre el 17 y el 19 de octubre de 2018.This work assesses changes in the extremes of precipitation and streamflow in Spain assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. We consider an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations spanning the period 1970-2099 to evaluate precipitation changes and to drive a distributed hydrological model and thus to derive streamflow statistics under present and future climates. The climate simulations were performed under the umbrella of the EURO-CORDEX project, thus covering Europe with a spatial resolution of 0.11 degree both in latitude and longitude, the finest so far in this type of climatological multimodel and multi-scenario experiments. Preliminary results suggest that constraining global warming well below 2°C, as sought in the Paris Agreement, reduces the probability of increasing drought related indices.This work has been supported by the Spanish Projects HOPE (CGL2014-52571-R) and M-CostAdapt (CTM2017-83655-C2-2-R) of the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, as well as the EFA 210/216 PIRAGUA project financed by the INTERREG V A (POCTEFA) and FEDER