Could Latinos Choose the Next President? States in Which Latinos Could Determine the Margin of Victory in the 2016 Presidential Election

This special report in partnership with CNN en Espanol examines characteristics of states in which the Latino electorate could determine victory in the 2016 presidential election. Methods: Data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, as a part of the Current Population Survey data from the November Voter Supplements. The 2016 estimates were derived by using the yearly percentage rate of increase between 2004 and 2012. Additional data were derived from an analysis of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) American Community Survey (ACS). Results: In Florida Latinos comprise a large share of the electorate and will be a decisive factor in victory—76% of Latinos are projected to register to vote in 2016 and 64% of eligible Latinos will likely vote. The data indicate that in states with small Latino populations, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, the Latino vote will be important if the races are close. It is unlikely that the Latino vote will be important in New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Discussion: Despite representing small numbers of the population in many states, the Latino electorate has the potential to be a deciding factor in a number of swing states in the 2016 presidential election. How important their role will be hinges on Latino voter registration and turn-out