Breast cancer incidence and mortality in a transitioning Chinese population: current and future trends

Background Projections of future trends in cancer incidence and mortality are important for public health planning. Methods By using 1976–2010 data in Hong Kong, we fitted Poisson age-period-cohort models and made projections for future breast cancer incidence and mortality to 2025. Results Age-standardised breast cancer incidence (/mortality) is projected to increase (/decline) from 56.7 (/9.3) in 2011–2015 to 62.5 (/8.6) per 100 000 women in 2021–2025. Conclusions The incidence pattern may relate to Hong Kong’s socio-economic developmental history, while falling mortality trends are, most likely, due to improvements in survival from treatment advancement and improved health service delivery