Challenges Associated with Space Weather Analysis and Prediction

The term “space weather” is typically used to describe environmental conditions in the region extending from the sun’s surface, through the interplanetary medium, to the earth’s magnetic field and upper atmosphere, with a focus on those conditions that can affect the earth, its technological systems, and population. Space weather conditions are monitored continuously by a number of agencies around the world. These agencies use both satellite- and ground-based measurements to build analyses and employ predictive models that form the basis for impacts-based products dealing with myriad users in satellite operations, the utility industry, aviation, and satellite-based communications, to name a few. It has been stated that space weather analysis and prediction is about 40 years behind terrestrial weather analysis and prediction in terms of observational coverage, analysis tools, and prediction models. Rather than focusing on a comparison of terrestrial and space weather analysis and prediction capabilities, this talk concentrates instead on the main functions of Data Collection, Analysis/Assimilation, Prediction, and Product Tailoring/ Dissemination from the perspective of U.S. space weather operations centers such as NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and the Air Force Weather Agency. For each of these operational functions, present-day tools and techniques are described, along with the gaps in those capabilities and a brief outline of research and development efforts intended to fill those capability gaps. The overall goal is to provide a current snapshot of the space-weather community, along with the challenges and opportunities faced by the community\u27s providers and stakeholders