Projecting Air Traffic Impact of Blocked Airspaces

FAA frequently blocks strategically located airspaces to ensure operational safety in the vicinity of hazardous operations such as space launches and military exercises. As demand for access to airspace continues to rise, the need for, and the impact of blocked airspaces is likely to grow. Users such as space operators have no advanced insights into potential NAS impact of airspaces blocked due to their operations, nor do they possess ways to minimize it. This paper presents a model that would give users this insight. The model estimates levels of air traffic likely to intersect arbitrary airspace volumes on a daily and hourly basis, projected into the next two years. Estimation of future traffic levels is a complex task, as it varies significantly depending on factors such as location, season, day of the week, time of day, and influence of weather. Weather and traffic patterns cannot be predicted to the needed level of accuracy months in advance. The model presented uses location-specific historical traffic trends to predict future traffic levels. Unusual traffic volume days, such as days on or near certain holidays, are identified and handled separately. This model may be used to develop a simple traffic projection calendar that airspace users can refer to during their initial planning to select day and time windows that meet their mission goals while keeping the effect on other users of the NAS to a minimal level. Such a model can also be used to develop a ‘what-if’ analysis capability that can quickly evaluate design of blocked airspaces with respect to their impact on the NA