Long Term Bathymetry Changes in the Lower Mississippi River due to Variability in Hydrograph and Variable Diversion Schemes

This research is part of an ongoing effort to improve predictions for bathymetric and morphological changes in the Lower Mississippi River. The utilized model is a subset of a previously calibrated Delft3D model. This shorter model has reduced computational time, and can be deployed for analysis focused on the area between Belle Chasse and HOP, which is the domain of the model. Simulation runs conducted under this study vary from 12 years to 48 years, utilizing a developed 12-year variable hydrograph. The comparison of variable annual hydrograph and repeated representative annual (uniform) hydrograph input data on bathymetric changes indicated that the absolute bathymetric equilibrium is dependent on year to year variability. The utilization of a uniform hydrograph increases the predicted deposition within the river domain. When evaluating diversion sand capture, utilizing a uniform hydrograph can be considered a conservative approach, while utilizing a variable hydrograph will result in more accurate sand load volumes captured by the diversion.In general, sediment capture showed only minor interdependencies amongst multiple diversions, as long as the total diversion flow is less than 140,000cfs. This study shows that morphological changes are dependent on the number and location of multiple diversions. The largest interdependencies occur for the most downstream diversions, which increase with the total diverted flow. A true equilibrium was not achieved within 48 years, with or without sea level rise. It was observed, that the system with diversions responds to sea level rise by an increase in deposition, which increases with total diverted flow