Market share elasticities for fuel and technology choice in home heating and cooling

A new technique for estimating own- and cross-elasticities of market share for fuel and technology choices in home heating and cooling is presented. We simulate changes in economic conditions and estimate elasticities by calculating predicted changes in fuel and technology market shares. Elasticities are found with respect to household income, equipment capital cost, and equipment capital cost, and equipment operating cost (including fuel price). The method is applied to a revised and extended version of a study by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Data for that study are drawn primarily from the 1975--1979 Annual Housing Surveys. Results are generally similar to previous studies, although our estimates of elasticities are somewhat lower. We feel the superior formulation of consumer choice and the currency of data in EPRI's work produce reliable estimates of market share elasticities. 18 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs