Applications of Kalman Filtering to nuclear material control. [Kalman filtering and linear smoothing for detecting nuclear material losses]

The feasibility of using modern state estimation techniques (specifically Kalman Filtering and Linear Smoothing) to detect losses of material from material balance areas is evaluated. It is shown that state estimation techniques are not only feasible but in most situations are superior to existing methods of analysis. The various techniques compared include Kalman Filtering, linear smoothing, standard control charts, and average cumulative summation (CUSUM) charts. Analysis results indicated that the standard control chart is the least effective method for detecting regularly occurring losses. An improvement in the detection capability over the standard control chart can be realized by use of the CUSUM chart. Even more sensitivity in the ability to detect losses can be realized by use of the Kalman Filter and the linear smoother. It was found that the error-covariance matrix can be used to establish limits of error for state estimates. It is shown that state estimation techniques represent a feasible and desirable method of theft detection. The technique is usually more sensitive than the CUSUM chart in detecting losses. One kind of loss which is difficult to detect using state estimation techniques is a single isolated loss. State estimation procedures are predicated on dynamic models and are well-suited for detecting losses which occur regularly over several accounting periods. A single isolated loss does not conform to this basic assumption and is more difficult to detect