Conservation potential of compact fluorescent lamps in India and Brazil

We evaluate the conservation potential of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) for managing the rapidly increasing electrical energy and peak demand in India and Brazil. Using very conservative assumptions, we find that the cost of conserved energy using 16 W CFLs is 4 and 6 times less than the long range marginal cost of electricity for the two countries. The cost of avoided peak installed capacity is 6 and 9.5 times less than the cost of new installed capacity for India and Brazil. The analysis is undertaken from the three separate perspectives of the national economies, the consumers, and the utilities. We find that because residential electricity is subsidized, the consumers have little or no incentive to purchase and install the CFLs, unless they too are subsidized. However, the benefits of CFL installation to the utility are so large that subsidizing them is a paying proposition for the utility are so large that subsidizing them is a paying proposition for the utility in almost all cases. As an illustration of a gradual introduction strategy for CFLs, we calculate a scenario where national savings of the order of US $1.2 million per day for India and US $2.5 million per day for Brazil are reached in 10 years by a small and gradual transfer of subsidy from residential electricity to CFLs. We then explore the barriers to immediate large scale introduction of these lamps in the two countries. Specific technical and marketing problems are identified and discussed, which would require solution before such an introduction can be attempted. Lastly, we discuss the range of policy instruments, in addition to a subsidy scheme, that can be used for promoting the diffusion of these lamps in the domestic and commercial sector. 47 refs., 15 figs., 2 tabs