Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10/sup -7/ spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10/sup -9//mile