Review of seismic probabilistic risk assessment and the use of sensitivity analysis

This paper presents results of sensitivity reviews performed to address a range of questions which arise in the context of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). These questions are the subject of this paper. A seismic PRA involves evalution of seismic hazard, component fragilities, and system responses. They are combined in an integrated analysis to obtain various risk measures, such as frequency of plant damage states. Calculation of these measures depends on combination of non-linear functions based on a number of parameters and assumptions used in the quantification process. Therefore it is often difficult to examine seismic PRA results and derive useful insights from them if detailed sensitivity studies are absent. This has been exempified in the process of trying to understand the role of low acceleration earthquakes in overall seismic risk. It is useful to understand, within a probabilistic framework, what uncertainties in the physical properties of the plant can be tolerated, if the risk from a safe shutdown earthquake is to be considered negligible. Seismic event trees and fault trees were developed to model the difference system and plant accident sequences. Hazard curves which represent various sites on the east coast were obtained; alternate structure and equipment fragility data were postulated. Various combinations of hazard and fragility data were analyzed. In addition, system modeling was perturbed to examine the impact upon the final results. Orders of magnitude variation were observed in the plant damage state frequency among the different cases. 7 refs