Problems with predicting fallout radiation hazard in tactical battlefield situations

Prediction capabilities are reviewed to determine whether they are suitable for describing the fallout radiation hazards that may exist in tactical nuclear battlefield situations. One aspect of fallout predictability is illustrated by a collection of aberrant results from nuclear tests conducted under fairly stabilized conditions. There are a number of warnings about the confidence that should be placed on prediction schemes derived from nuclear test shots. A comparison of current fallout models shows uncertainties including wind, terrain, rainout, and cloud parameters. Some consequences of depending on faulty predictions are serious. The search for the best-of-all-possible prediction schemes will not lead to fruitful results because of the complexities involved. A set of limits to the upper and lower bounds to expected fallout should be adopted as a practical means of using prediction schemes for tactical warfare. It is emphasized that there is no substitute for hard data and that a computerized radiation data collection, reduction, and display system should be contemplated to satisfy the need to respond to fallout problems on thc battlefield. (auth