Subtask 7.3 - The Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Shifts in the Northern Great Plains

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) evaluated the water demand response/vulnerability to climate change factors of regional economic sectors in the northern Great Plains. Regardless of the cause of climatic trends currently observed, the research focused on practical evaluation of climate change impact, using water availability as a primary factor controlling long-term regional economic sustainability. Project results suggest that the Upper Missouri, Red River, and Upper Mississippi Watersheds exhibit analogous response to climate change, i.e., extended drought influences water availability in the entire region. The modified trend suggests that the next period for which the Red River Basin can expect a high probability of below normal precipitation will occur before 2050. Agriculture is the most sensitive economic sector in the region; however, analyses confirmed relative adaptability to changing conditions. The price of agricultural commodities is not a good indicator of the economic impact of climate change because production and price do not correlate and are subject to frequent and irregular government intervention. Project results confirm that high water demand in the primary economic sectors makes the regional economy extremely vulnerable to climatic extremes, with a similar response over the entire region. Without conservation-based water management policies, long-term periods of drought will limit socioeconomic development in the region and may threaten even the sustainability of current conditions