Benefits and Challenges of Achieving a Mainstream Market for Electric Vehicles

The Plug-in Hybrid electric Vehicle (PHEV) Market Introduction Study Final Report identified a range of policies, incentives and regulations designed to enhance the probability of success in commercializing PHEVs as they enter the automotive marketplace starting in 2010. The objective of the comprehensive PHEV Value Proposition study, which encompasses the PHEV Market Introduction Study, is to better understand the value proposition that PHEVs (as well as other plug-in electric vehicle platforms - PEVs) provide to the auto companies themselves, to the consumer and to the public at large as represented by the government and its public policies. In this report we use the more inclusive term PEVs, to include PHEVs, BEVs (battery electric vehicles that operate only on battery) and EREVs (extended range electric vehicles that combine battery electric vehicles with an internal combustion engine that charges the battery as needed). The objective of Taratec's contribution to Phase 2 of the PHEV Value Proposition Study is to develop a clear understanding of the benefits of PEVs to three stakeholders - auto original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), utilities, and the government - and of the technical and commercial challenges and risks to be overcome in order to achieve commercial success for these vehicles. The goal is to understand the technical and commercial challenges in moving from the 'early adopters' at the point of market introduction of these vehicles to a 'sustainable' mainstream market in which PEVs and other PEVs represent a normal, commercially available and attractive vehicle to the mainstream consumer. For the purpose of this study, that sustainable market is assumed to be in place in the 2030 timeframe. The principal focus of the study is to better understand the technical and commercial challenges in the transition from early adopters to a sustainable mainstream consumer market. Effectively, that translates to understanding the challenges to be overcome during the transition period - basically the middle years as the second and third generation of these vehicles are developed and come to market. The concern is to understand those things that in the near term would delay that transition. The study looked at identifying and then quantifying these technical and commercial risks and benefits from three perspectives: (1) The auto industry original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) themselves; (2) The utilities who will provide the electric 'fuel' that will fully or partially power the vehicles; and (3) The government, representing public policy interest in PEV success. By clarifying and quantifying these benefits and the technical and commercial risks that could delay the transition to a sustainable mainstream market, the study provides the basis for developing recommendations for government policies and support for PHEV and PEV development