Improved Associated Conditions in Rapid Intensifications of Tropical Cyclones

Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a major error source in TC intensity forecasting. In order to improve the estimates of RI probability, association rules are used to facilitate the process of mining for candidate sets of conditions. Compared to the relation analysis method, the technique of association rules can simply explore associations among multiple conditions. Our mining results identified a reduced predictor set with fewer factors identified in previous studies but improved RI probabilities. That is, the RI probability with three conditions satisfied: low vertical shear, high humidity, and the TC being in an intensification phase is higher than that with five satisfied conditions including high sea surface temperature and an intensity far away from the maximum potential intensity in addition to the above three