A methodology for evaluating the implications of climate change on the design and performance of flexible pavements

A methodology is presented by which the implications of climate change on pavement deterioration can be assessed. This work focuses on the preparation and use of climate model datasets as inputs into the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide model to simulate pavement performance and deterioration over time. The methodology is illustrated using climate model temperature data from three North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program scenarios at four sites across New England for alligator cracking and asphalt concrete rutting. The change in alligator cracking was shown to be negligible, while the difference in rutting was up to 31% between future and hindcast model periods; it suggests that climate change needs to be considered for pavement design and management. Additional work needs to be done using the proposed methodology in converting and running the remaining deterioration relevant variables in model scenarios to fully assess the implications of climate change on pavement deterioration