Chronic Disease Risk Prediction Models and their Impacts on Behavioural and Health Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Risk prediction models are tools that predict an individual’s risk of developing a health outcome. They were developed to influence patient management by guiding preventive interventions, with the goal of reducing the incidence of new diseases. Studies examining their impacts are uncommon, and no consensus regarding their effects has been reached. This systematic review sought to determine the impact of risk prediction models for chronic diseases on physician behaviour, patient behaviour, and patient health outcomes. Twenty-two studies were found to be eligible for review. The results demonstrated that: 1) physician behaviour may be positively influenced, though a statistically significant result was not found; 2) alterations in patient behaviour were inconclusive; and 3) some aspects of patient health outcomes were significantly improved, such as changes in blood pressure, but these results may be clinically insignificant. The evidence indicates some effects may exist, though future studies are required to confirm this effect