Traffic now, transit later: understanding current and future travel behavior of residents in active-adult communities

This dissertation examines older-adult travel behavior in suburban age-restricted communities in Central NJ. The confluence of three precepts – gerontology, location, and tenets of travel behavior, referred to as a 3-ring framework – is examined with theoretical guidance from the competence-press model. To support the thesis that travel behavior of residents in new active-adult communities will eventually resemble travel behavior of residents in older, long-established retirement communities, four hypotheses are examined, viz. 1) For older adults, length of time with a medical condition will have a significant and negative relationship with daily count of trips; 2) Given the 3-ring framework and a suburban setting, there will be significant differences in travel behavior between older adult residents in active-adult and mixed-age communities; 3) Among active-adult residents, vehicular trip-rate will be higher for older adults 55-74 than for older adults 75 and above; 4) Residents in active-adult communities will age in place. Data sources include: 1) National Household Transportation Survey 2001; 2) New non-probability Travel Behavior Survey, Central NJ; 3) North Jersey Regional Travel Household Interview Survey; 4) 1990 and 2000 Census data. This dissertation utilizes a number of statistical methods including linear regression, count data models, the Tobit model, and comparative analyses. Findings include: 1) For older adults, length of time with a medical condition is negatively related to count of trips; age negatively, nonlinearly related to count of trips; Tobit model useful given proliferation of zeros in the data. 2) For older adults in age-restricted versus mixed-age communities, self-rated health similar but future outlook more optimistic; greater expectation of living at same address in the future; greater satisfaction navigating community; Certainty Principle proposed. 3) For younger versus older residents in suburban age-restricted communities, vehicular trip rate higher; neither rate reflects ITE. 4) Active-adult residents age in place. Implications include: 1) Understanding the previously unknown housing direction of active-adult residents; 2) Reexamination of the plan review process for proposed active-adult development projects; 3) Awareness of the Tobit model for estimating total trips for older adults; and 4) Consideration of health and age-restricted housing questions for inclusion on travel surveys.Ph.D.Includes bibliographical referencesIncludes vitaby Sharon Pinnela