Mediation in civil wars: determinants of success

In the recent past, mediation, a special kind of Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR), has become a both more frequent and more successful tool to reach peaceful settlements in civil wars. Nevertheless, current research still does not understand what triggers the occurrence of mediation and which factors determine its failure or success. This research paper aims to answer these questions, deriving a comprehensive theoretical framework and corresponding research hypotheses from a literature review. Taking into account debates on the conceptualization and operationalization of the key variables in question, these hypotheses are subjected to an empirical test, analyzing a data-set including 68 civil wars in the time span 1945-1999. In doing so, for the first time, the ordinal nature of mediation outcomes is taken into account when modeling both the incidence of mediation and potential determinants of its outcome jointly. The results question a large number of hypotheses found in the literature, asking for a better theoretical underpinning of the subject matter. Particularly, while mediation occurrence can be explained rather well, a lack of knowledge remains concerning success factors of mediation. Moreover, adding to discussions on a mediator's agency within structural constraints, none of the variables within the reach of a mediator's direct influence were found to be significant predictors of mediation success.M.A.Includes abstractIncludes bibliographical referencesby Andreas Tieman