Demographic, Economics, and Housing Demand

Demography is destiny! And, just as forecast, the long-anticipated demographic paradigm of the twenty-first century has unfolded almost exactly on schedule. However, our once highly anticipated accompanying economic destiny has not! As a result, the intersection of demography and the new global economic realities has fundamental implications for residential demand and construction that differ somewhat from the prevailing forecasts of the recent past. Consequently, a new economically constrained demography has emerged, with shifting spatial ramifications. Many market dynamics are so complex that simple description, much less prediction, becomes difficult. However, it is possible to forecast with a reasonable degree of certainty a number of key dimensions of our demographic future, particularly the age structure of the adult population to come. For example, every member of the labor force (18 years of age and over) in 2029—and every individual (18 years of age and over) that will need housing in 2029—has already been born, although perhaps not in the United States. Consequently, the core population projection is basically a cohort aging process that has only a minimum of uncertainty. What is less certain, and modifies the core projection, is the scale of immigration from abroad, which will impact the size of every population age group. Also uncertain is the translation of age-segmented future populations into specific household configurations.Future household formations depend upon the economic capacity of individuals to establish independent living arrangements in a separate dwelling unit, and their desire to do so. So, while the broad contours of our demographic landscape can be foreseen with some accuracy, economics and social preferences will be influential in determining their final morphologyThis report was published as Issue Paper Number 29, April 2012, in Rutgers Regional Report