Military Might and Political, Economic, and Social Institutions: A Global Time Series Empirical Test of Terrorism

This study, in an effort to uncover root reasons for terrorism, will delve into the issue of terrorism by testing if economic, social, and political factors have an effect on terrorism. It is the intention of this study to suggest policies that address the source of terrorist motivations rather than the symptoms. Using data from RAND and the World Bank that spans 12 years8, the researcher uses a negative binomial time series analysis to answer several hypotheses probing the relationship of political, social, and economic institutions’ effect on terrorist incidents. Establishing that terrorism is a rational behavior is significant to the discussion; it is only when we prove that terrorism is rational that policy can be effective. That is, if terrorism is irrational, counter-terrorism policy will be ineffective. Therefore, this article will begin with a discussion about the rationality of terrorism. Previous research will then be reviewed that attempts to measure the effect of political, social and economic factors. Weaknesses and strengths of each study will be discussed. The current study will then be introduced including methodology, data and findings. Finally, the discussion and conclusion will highlight important findings of the study and suggest policy implications. --from page 2 8 Data acquired from RAND’s MIPT terrorism knowledgebase and the World Bank. Data from 1995 to 2006 are utilized in this study