Forecasting the market for electric vehicles in California

Beginning in 1998 and increasing gradually thereafter, two percent of large automobile manufacturers\u27 vehicle sales in California must be powered using a zero-emission fuel, which at this time, 1994, is synonymous with the electric vehicle. However, it remains to be seen whether Californians will choose to purchase electric vehicles. In the past, results of electric vehicle market forecasts have suggested that limited range is the greatest liability is selling electric vehicles. However, limited range implies several restrictive parameters. This dissertation uses marketing research designed to ascertain Californians\u27 relative preferences for several cost-related and convenience-related electric vehicle attributes. A mailed conjoint analysis questionnaire was used to elicit Californians\u27 preferences for vehicle cost-related and refueling-related attributes, which were used to construct overall utilities for new electric and natural gas vehicle concepts. The research results are expressed in three forms. First, a general market forecast for electric and natural gas vehicles is performed. Second, market segments most likely to purchase electric vehicles are described by demographic attributes. Third, the relative preferences between any pair of the seven tested attributes are derived. General research results suggest a very small market for electric vehicles, and a very large market for natural gas vehicles. Results also indicate that range is not the most important range-related attribute in the limited range vehicle selection. The duration of the recharge is more important than the range itself. Research results have significant implications for the automobile industry, who must design and produce the vehicles, the electric utility industry, who must supply electricity in the quantity and during the hours demanded, and other fuel industries, who will be confronted with varying degrees of competition from this mandated market. The automobile industry continues to oppose the sales mandate, while California\u27s electric utilities currently are requesting $600 million in research, development, and demonstration funds from the California Public Utilities Commission. Research results are presented and discussed in terms of the individual stakeholder agendas, and larger policy implications