PREDICTING LOCAL RESPONSES TO FEDERAL INCENTIVES FOR COMPETITIVELY CONTRACTING TRANSIT SERVICE (COLORADO, NEW JERSEY, VIRGINIA, PENNSYLVANIA, WASHINGTON)

This dissertation investigates urban transit agencies\u27 policy decision on the competitive contracting transit services by evaluating alternative federal policies designed to increase contracting. Since contracting has significant potential for cost savings, yet is rarely implemented, this dissertation considers political and organizational constraints to the policy. Social justice issues are discussed but not investigated. The alternative federal policies are developed from modifications of existing federal policies on transit. These are evaluated by a model of the incentives of political decision makers (termed the Service Delivery Choice Model). The model assumes a pluralistic decision making environment, aggregating dissatisfaction from appropriate interest groups. The model\u27s predictions are deduced from these incentives. Elite or specialized interviews are used to evaluate the model\u27s assumptions and predictions. Decision makers (general managers, governing board members, independent observers, and leaders of organizations interacting with the agencies) were interviewed at six different transit agencies (in Denver, New Jersey, Norfolk, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Seattle). Thus the experience of the interviewees could be used to evaluate the model. The results of the research recommend that a portion of the existing federal operating subsidy be used as an incentive for diffusing the competitive contracting policy innovation to transit agencies nationwide. This policy (of seven analyzed in detail) is the one most likely to increase contracted service. The Service Delivery Choice Model is also shown to predict well and that its assumptions are reasonable. The interviews confirmed that interest groups are important in the transit agencies\u27 decision making environment. Other results from the research include reasons for and against contracting transit service and a list of barriers to obtaining the desired local responses to federal policy initiatives. The dissertation concludes with some recommendations for policy analysis. It establishes that combining knowledge from both experience and theory is easily accomplished. The importance of including political and organizational factors in the evaluation is confirmed since the recommended federal policy changes when these factors are included in the analysis