Aircraft Emissions: Current Inventories and Future Scenarios

Three-dimensional (latitude, longitude, altitude) global inventories of civil and military aircraft fuel burned and emissions have been developed for the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the years 1976, 1984, and 1992, and by the European Abatement of Nuisances Caused by Air Transport (ANCAT)/European Commission (EC) Working Group and the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) for 1991/92. For 1992, the results of the inventory calculations are in good agreement, with total fuel used by aviation calculated to be 129.3 Tg (DLR), 131.2 Tg (ANCAT), and 139.4 Tg (NASA). Total emissions of NOx (as N02) in 1992 were calculated to range from 1.7 Tg (NASA) to 1.8 Tg (ANCAT and DLR). Forecasts of air travel demand and technology developed by NASA and ANCAT for 2015 have been used to create three-dimensional (3-D) data sets of fuel burn and NOx emissions for purposes of modeling the near-term effects of aircraft. The NASA 2015 forecast results in a global fuel burn of 309 Tg, with a NOx emission of 4.1 Tg (as N02); the global emission index, EI(NOx) (g NOx/kg fuel), is 13.4. In contrast, the ANCAT 2015 forecast results in lower values-a global fuel burn of 287 Tg, an emission of 3.5 Tg of NOx and a global emission index of 12.3. The differences arise from the distribution of air travel demand and technology assumptions