A Better Predictor of NFL Success: Collegiate Performance or the NFL Draft Combine?

NFL teams spend massive sums to ensure they are prepared for the future, but how should they determine whom that future includes? This study set out to find what predicts NFL success more accurately – collegiate in-game performance or the NFL Draft Combine. In the sample of 2007-2012 first-round picks, 191 athletes were measured in three NFL Draft Combine drills, two physical components, and a varying amount of ingame collegiate and NFL performance statistical categories, dependent on position. Secondarily, this work examined Power 5 and non-Power 5 players to determine if attending a more prolific program was predictive of NFL success. Findings included that 40-yard dash and vertical jump are predictive of offensive linemen and cornerback NFL success, that in-game collegiate statistics are most indicative of NFL success amongst defensive players, and that Power 5 prospects are no more prepared for NFL success than those coming from non-Power 5 schools