Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Productivity in Pakistan: A District Level Analysis

This study analyses the impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Pakistan by employing production function approach using districts level data for the period of 1981-2010.The Fixed Effect (FE) estimations support the evidence that an increase of 10C in the mean temperature during sowing time would reduce crop yield by 7.4 percent. The same rise in mean temperature in January and February enhances wheat productivity to the tune of 6.2 percent. However, no significant impact of rise in temperature normals during the maturity stage (March-April) was observed on wheat productivity. The deviations of mean temperature from historic (long run) mean—weather shocks are found posing no threat to wheat productivity during the period under study. Precipitation normals—during vegetative and maturity stages and their deviations from historic mean (positive) exert a positive impact on the wheat yield but the magnitude of the impact of incremental rains came out to be very low