Collinsville solar thermal project: Energy economics and dispatch forecasting - Final report

This report primarily aims to provide both dispatch and wholesale spot price forecasts for the proposed hybrid gas-solar thermal plant at Collinsville, Queensland, Australia for its lifetime 2017-47. These forecasts are to facilitate Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) negotiations and to evaluate the proposed dispatch profile in Table 3. The report’s wider appeal is the techniques and methods used to model the Australian National Electricity Market's (NEM) demand and wholesale spot prices for the lifetime of the proposed plant. The solar thermal component of the plant uses Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) technology. To facilitate the PPA negotiations, this report produces the half-hourly dispatch of the plant’s gas component and the associated half-hourly wholesale spot prices for the plant’s node on the NEM given the yield from the plant’s solar thermal component and a fixed total dispatch profile shown in Table 3. The total dispatch profile incorporates both gas and solar outputs and differs between weekdays and weekends. Table 3: Proposed plant's total dispatch profile by hour of week _____Time_________________Dispatch (MW)_____________________ Weekdays (8am-10pm) ______ 30 Weekdays (7am-8am) _______ ramp from 0 to 30 Weekends _________________ entire yield of the solar thermal component The half-hourly yield profile for the solar thermal component of the plant is determined in our previous report (Bell, Wild & Foster 2014b). Three profiles are utilised to help to negotiate a PPA: solar thermal yield, gas dispatch and wholesale market spot price