The Supply Side Effects of Climate Change on Tourism

Assuming nothing is done to address greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels across the world are anticipated to rise by between 0.2m and 1m over this century. Higher sea levels can be particularly devastating to small states. It is expected that rising sea levels will result in coastal squeezing and the loss of their main tourist attraction, beach tourism. Climate change is also forecasted to result in more severe storm activity, which could also lead to flooding and damage from storm force winds. This study attempts to quantify the potential supply-side effects of climate change on tourism in the small island state of Barbados. Using a database of 181 hotels, a model is employed to evaluate the effects of coastal squeezing and storm activity on accommodation establishments