Add to ORKGIdeally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to forecast election outcomes. Our model, named PollyIssues, provides a forecast of the winner of the popular vote in U.S. Presidential Elections based on the voters’ overall perception of which candidate will do the best job in handle the issues facing the country. The PollyIssues correctly picked the winner for the last ten elections from 1972 to 2008 and provided an idea of the margin of victory. In predicting the two-party vote percentages for the last three elections from 2000 to 2008, its out-of-sample forecasts outperformed those derived from ...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential e...
In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling ...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, bas...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential election...
For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index ” for forecasting U.S. presidential electio...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential e...
In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling ...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, bas...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential election...
For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index ” for forecasting U.S. presidential electio...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential e...
In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling ...