Add to ORKGIdeally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to forecast election outcomes. We make two forecasts of the winner of the popular vote in the U.S. Presidential Election. One is based on voters’ perceptions of how the candidates would deal with issues (problems facing the country) if elected. We show that this approach would have correctly picked the winner for the three elections from 1996 to 2004. The other is based on voters’ preference for policies and their perceptions of which policies the candidates are likely to pursue. Both approaches lead to a forecast that Democrat candidate Barack Obama...
With the 2016 presidential primary now well underway, many pundits and commentators are beginning to...
Abstract. Traditional election forecasting models are estimated from time-series data on relevant va...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential e...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, bas...
For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential election...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index ” for forecasting U.S. presidential electio...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
With the 2016 presidential primary now well underway, many pundits and commentators are beginning to...
Abstract. Traditional election forecasting models are estimated from time-series data on relevant va...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential e...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, bas...
For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential election...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index ” for forecasting U.S. presidential electio...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
With the 2016 presidential primary now well underway, many pundits and commentators are beginning to...
Abstract. Traditional election forecasting models are estimated from time-series data on relevant va...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential e...