The importance of Opuntia in Mexico and routes of invasion and impact of Cactoblastis cactorum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)

This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from http://journals.fcla.edu/flaent/article/view/74992.The appearance of the cactus moth Cactoblastis cactorum in Florida has roused concern over its possible effects on the Opuntia-rich areas of Mexico and the southwestern United States. In this paper we discuss the economic importance of Opuntia in Mexico and propose a method to predict the invasion of the alien species C. cactorum. In Mexico, the products derived from Opuntia are mainly human food and fodder for livestock. Both cultivated and wild populations of Opuntia are currently used for these two purposes. By using bioclimatic modeling, we predicted the potential distribution of C. cactorum and overlaid this on the actual distribution of Opuntia species. The resulting maps indicate that the possible routes of invasion to Mexico are 1) along the northern border through Texas (most likely) and 2) via southeastern Mexico (less likely). The impacts of an invasion of C. cactorum on Opuntia products could be significant as well as being a threat to endemic species. Bioclimatic modeling can help to predict the areas of highest probability of attack and facilitate planning to mitigate future impacts