Tropical cyclones in the Fiji Region: Impact of ENSO and seasonal prediction

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most extreme meteorological events, often having devastating impacts on life and property in the southwestern tropical Pacific islands such as Fiji, Samoa and Tonga (the FST region). However, the FST region has garnered little attention in the scientific literature regarding many aspects of TC behaviour when compared with other cyclone basins of the world. In this thesis, we first examine the spatio-temporal variability of TC genesis position, track and intensity due to the two major modes of natural climate variability in this region – the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phenomena. Statistical forecast models are also formulated using sophisticated methodologies to provide forewarning of TC strike in the FST region