Public deficit sustainability, public debt and monetization in an endogenous growth model: an application for Turkey

Version préliminaire attachéeThis paper analyzes the long term sustainability of budgetary policies in a general equilibrium framework. The analysis is based on an overlapping generations model where the government fixes a tax rate on factor incomes, conducts unproductive and productive public spendings and determines the weight of public bonds issuance and monetization in deficit financing. A budgetary rule setting the economy on a balanced growth path is considered sustainable. The model is used to evaluate the sustainability of Turkish budgetary policies since 1980. The results show that Turkish budgetary policies became sustainable in the period 1999-2007. Alternative policy simulations show that Turkey could have conducted more expansionnist budget policies without risking sustainability during this period. The model shows also that the negative impact of inflation tax on private capital accumulation is greater than the impact of factor income tax.ou