Cars, Congestion, Public Transport, and Pricing: A Reality Check

For some little while now, the flavour of the month in transport policy seems to have been to set goals for massive relative increases in public transport ridership, reduction of car use, all resulting in a hoped-for reduction in road congestion. As a result of this policy focus, we have seen various government entities at the metropolitan, state, and national levels set goals for such activities as increased ride sharing, increased use of public transport, implementation of high occupancy vehicle lanes, and, at least in Australia and the U.K., thinking about congestion pricing of some form. Through political rhetoric, it seems that use of the private car, congestion, and declining shares of the market for public transport are all labeled as negatives that should be set right by some type of policy intervention. Since the first introduction of ideas of demand management in the late 1970s, the idea of trying to change behaviour of car users has been an increasingly significant focus of transport policy. This paper seeks to check the reality of these policy directions and questions whether these are desirable, let alone achievable end states. It is noted that major changes in transport market share have never been achieved in the past, and as such, it seems unlikely that such policies will be successful in the long term. Even if such policies can be achieved, it is questionable whether the end results will have desirable consequences or not