Courting the Dragon: Australia’s Engagement with China, 1983-2013

The purpose of this dissertation is to test the ‘non-sticky historical institutionalism’ (NSHI) theory. First espoused by Stephen Bell (2011) in the evolution of Australia’s China policy. I aim to fill a fundamental gap in the literature by identifying and theorising the importance of multiple key independent variables: (A) leadership, the international environment, domestic politics and middle power activism that affected Australia’s China policies and, (B) choices in the Hawke and Keating period (1983-1996), the Howard period (1996-2007) and the Rudd and Gillard period (2007-2013). These case studies help to illustrate and amplify policy change in the study. A significant piece of the puzzle to be analysed is why did Australian governments vary in their China policies during these periods. Furthermore, how does Australia’s middle power diplomacy interact with the three core variables? Broadly, I argue that the examination of these five governments and intervening factors help test the significance of the core variables in shaping policy change and autonomy and highlights structural constraints that distinguish policymaking decisions regarding China. In addition, I argue that middle power entrepreneurship was the impetus in Australia’s China policy. These new findings enable me to hypothesize about the interrelationship between stability and crises and policy shifts in Australia’s foreign policymaking regarding China. Finally, I envisage this dissertation as providing a basis for further research into how each interactive and competing variable continues to impact upon Australia’s contemporary relations with China and the United States in the age of President Xi and Trump. Therefore, such a study is important as it introduces a new policy imperative for how Australia should approach and conduct its own bilateral relationship with China in the Asian century