The Supply Chain of Critical Food Items to Rome - AD 200 to AD 442

This thesis aims to define the supply processes for certain major food items to Rome and its hinterland (specifically grain, olive oil, wine, and garum) using modern supply chain modelling techniques, commencing in the late second century AD and continues until the fifth century AD. Strategic changes occurred during this period with the introduction of water-powered milling technology and accompanying changes to the annona system which provided consumers with bread rather than grain, and added other products such as wine, oil and pork to the annona supply. The reasons for these changes are examined to determine their impact on supply and the administrative changes which occurred concurrently. Evidence from ancient sources, both literary and epigraphic, together with relevant archaeological sources and a range of comparative evidence is used to develop a detailed supply model. By necessity, the model covers a range of populations from 650,000 to 1.2 million to allow the full testing of the supply systems in place in antiquity. The analysis includes the mapping of the control systems used such as warehouse management; port and river traffic co-ordination; quality control mechanisms and administrative structures. The use of modern analytical methods provided a detailed understanding of how the various changes occurred over time, adapting to new technology, and applying productivity improvements as and where possible. It is the core premise of this study that all other authors who have worked on the various aspects of the supply processes have neglected to consider supply chain losses, and have therefore assumed that supply is equal to consumption. This critical omission understates the supply requirements substantially, consequently not allowing the complete testing of key issues such as the potential maximum population level of Rome, the management of the port and river systems, and the timing of the introduction of water-powered milling technology. This thesis studies these losses in detail and attempts to answer these key questions